Is Indian stock market rebounding? Or it is a temporary rise?


Is Indian stock market rebounding? Or it is a temporary rise?

The biggest worry is the No. of COVID cases that have now gone to 11000 + numbers. Want to share the economic impact that is is having on US. · The restaurant businesses in the areas which are not affected by COVID-19 in the US are already witnessing a decline by 96% as people have no money to spend. The QSR revenue decline in the US could be anywhere to the tune of $200–225 billion dollars this year, which is 72–80% fall in business as compared to the 2019 numbers.
Layoffs have begun in the restaurant and leisure sector in the US and Europe, and now already extended in other sectors such as retail, manufacturing, etc.
·(this will rise further this wee) 16 million+ people have lost their jobs in the US; there is the biggest increase in Spain’s unemployment at close to one million job loss; UK has also seen around one million people applying for unemployment benefits and other European countries severely affected by COVID-19 is witnessing a sharp rise in the unemployment rate. And, the numbers are likely to worsen in the next few weeks!
With India continuing under lockdown, startups and SMEs are struggling to pay salaries to their employees. Even if the Indian government gives some benefit, it will too less to impact in my opinion. When people don’t get their salaries or get a lesser amount, they will default their EMIs on loan and other debts. The bad loans will surge, again adversely impacting the economy.
Currently, the demand side is shutting down and the supply side is suspect at best. Hence, the demand-supply balance will take at least one year to look better, assuming all other parameters being equal. The coming Stock results and future forecasts will start showing some direction, but feel India is not out of the woods and we could see the above levels happening.
All these factors will have a massive impact on the Indian economy which could not have been avoided. The federal banks across the world will need to increase liquidity to reduce impacts on business. If the velocity of the money is high, it will lead to inflationary pressures in India. Also, even if money is given out, it will not lead to an increase in demand on day one. Therefore, to expect business revenues to increase is an understatement. It’s a simple logic actually — just because I have money and can go out for dinner post the lockdown does not mean I will have three dinners to cover my trend of not being able to go out during the lockdown.
The current fall in markets has happened to due to a pandemic which led to the fall in the economic structure which in turn led to the fall in the market structure which has again resulted in the current market fall. It’s a vicious cycle at present.

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